US Sanctions on Russia May Shake Oil Trade, But India and China Unlikely to Stop Buying

The new sanctions announced by the United States on Russian oil are expected to cause short-term disruptions in global energy markets. However, analysts believe that India and China—two of Russia’s biggest buyers—are unlikely to completely halt their purchases. The situation could reshape trade flows temporarily but is not expected to break existing economic dependencies.

Impact of Trump administration’s sanctions
The US sanctions target financial and shipping channels linked to Russian crude exports, aiming to reduce Moscow’s revenue amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. While the measures could make transactions more complex and expensive, energy experts say that both India and China have built alternative payment routes and insurance mechanisms to keep oil imports steady.

India’s position and economic priorities
For India, Russian crude remains a crucial part of its energy basket due to its discounted prices compared to Middle Eastern oil. The country imports over 80% of its total oil needs, making cost efficiency a key factor in policy decisions. Even with increased scrutiny from the West, India is expected to maintain a pragmatic approach—balancing diplomatic ties with energy security.

China’s stance and long-term view
China, too, has shown no sign of scaling back purchases. Instead, it is expected to continue using indirect routes and local currency arrangements to bypass sanctions. For Beijing, Russian oil provides both economic and strategic advantages, particularly as global tensions push the two countries closer in trade and infrastructure cooperation.

Short-term disruptions and market reactions
In the immediate term, the sanctions could tighten supply lines, delay shipments, and push up transportation costs. Global oil prices may see temporary volatility as traders adjust to the new rules. But given the adaptability of Asian markets, experts predict that the impact will normalize within weeks, as alternative routes and middlemen emerge.

Why a complete halt is unlikely
The reality is that neither India nor China can easily replace Russian oil without facing higher costs and logistical hurdles. Moreover, Russia remains keen to offer flexible pricing and trade terms to retain its key customers. Unless secondary sanctions directly target buyers, both nations are expected to continue importing, albeit more cautiously.

Conclusion:
While the US sanctions will create short-term friction in oil trade, a full stop to Russian crude purchases by India or China appears improbable. Economic necessity, market adaptability, and geopolitical balancing will likely drive both nations to find ways around the restrictions. In essence, the global oil map may shift—but not drastically enough to end the flow of Russian barrels to Asia.